{"product_id":"navigating-uncertainty-using-foresight-intelligence-a-guidebook-for-scoping-scenario-options-in-cyber-and-beyond-9783031661174","title":"Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence: A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond","description":"\u003cp\u003e • Author(s): Bruce Garvey | Adam D. M. Svendsen\u003cbr\u003e • Publisher: Springer\u003cbr\u003e • Publisher Imprint: Springer\u003cbr\u003e • BISAC: Operations Research\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative\/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning '(un)certainty' to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today's rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard\/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. 'Red Teaming'. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, 'Intelligence Engineering' (IE) and, secondly, 'Strategic Options Analysis' (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Springer","offers":[{"title":"Paperback","offer_id":47658209673367,"sku":"9783031661174","price":5204.0,"currency_code":"INR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0666\/3471\/1191\/files\/9783031661174.webp?v=1775817831","url":"https:\/\/atlanticbooks.com\/products\/navigating-uncertainty-using-foresight-intelligence-a-guidebook-for-scoping-scenario-options-in-cyber-and-beyond-9783031661174","provider":"Atlantic Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}