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La Transition Démographique de l'Afrique: Dividende Ou Catastrophe? by David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, Abdo S. Yazbeck

La Transition Démographique de l'Afrique: Dividende Ou Catastrophe?

by David Canning , Sangeeta Raja , Abdo S. Yazbeck
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9781464808210
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: World Bank Publications
  • Publisher Imprint: World Bank Publications
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 220
  • Original Price: USD 39.95
  • Language: French
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 304 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Econometrics

Resume: L'Afrique est sur le bord d'un lancement potentiel de croissance economique soutenue. Cette ascension peut etre acceleree par un dividende demographique du aux changements dans la structure par age de la population. Les baisses de la mortalite infantile, suivies par la baisse de la fecondite, produisent une generation -renflement- et un grand nombre de personnes d'age actif, donnant un coup de pouce a l'economie. Dans le court terme, une fecondite plus faible engendre une baisse des taux de dependance des jeunes et une plus grande participation de la population active feminine en dehors de la maison. La reduction de la taille de la famille signifie egalement qu il reste davantage de ressources a investir dans la sante et l'education par enfant, augmentant ainsi la productivite future des travailleurs. Au long terme, une duree de vie accrue resultant de l amelioration dans le domaine de la sante signifie que cette vaste cohorte aux gains eleves sera egalement desireuse d epargner pour la retraite ainsi que pour la creation de l'epargne et des investissements plus consequents, conduisant ainsi a d'autres gains de productivite. Deux choses sont necessaires pour que le dividende demographique genere un decollage economique de l'Afrique. La premiere consiste a accelerer la baisse de la fecondite qui est actuellement au point mort ou lente dans de nombreux pays. La seconde est les politiques economiques qui profitent de l'occasion offerte par le changement de la demographie. Alors que l'evolution demographique peut produire plus, et des travailleurs de meilleure qualite, cette main-d' uvre potentielle doit etre employee si l'Afrique se doit de recolter le dividende. Cependant, une fois en route, la relation entre l'evolution demographique et le developpement humain fonctionne dans les deux sens, c est-a-dire qu elle cree un cercle vertueux susceptible d accelerer la baisse de la fecondite, le developpement social et la croissance economique. Les recherches scientifiques montrent trois facteurs cles pour accelerer la transition de la fecondite: la sante des enfants, l'education des femmes et l'autonomisation des femmes, notamment par l'acces a la planification familiale. Exploiter le dividende demographique necessite la creation d'emplois pour les grandes cohortes de jeunes qui entrent en age de travailler et qui stimulent les investissements etrangers jusqu'a faire augmenter l'epargne interieure et l'investissement. La combinaison appropriee de politiques dans chaque pays depend de leur stade de transition demographique. Etant la derniere region a subir la transition demographique, l Afrique peut tirer les lecons des reussites et des echecs des autres regions dans l'exploitation d'un dividende demographique. Le succes exige (i) l'acceleration de la transition demographique; (ii) une economie dynamique produisant des revenus et des investissements plus eleves pour une jeunesse mieux eduquee et en meilleure sante."

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