Modélisation Du Stress Testing Du Risque de Crédit
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L'objectif de cette étude est de construire un modèle de stress testing appliqué au risque de crédit d'un portefeuille de prèts aux particuliers. La modélisation du risque de crédit des prèts aux particuliers n'est pas un cas particulier des modèles du risque de crédit pour les entreprises. Le problème de ce genre de portefeuille est la présence importante d'une composante du risque spécifique par rapport au risque systématique. Nous développerons notre modèle à la base de Wilson (1997a, b), de sorte à capter la composante spécifique par des variables idiosyncratiques des prèts et des individus eux-mèmes. D'autre part, la composante systématique est captée par des facteurs macroéconomiques pertinents. Pour ce faire, nous ferons appel aux fonctions de survie de Cox (1975) et Shumway (2001). Nous explorerons également l'initiative fondatrice de Gouréroux et al. (2006) pour modéliser le taux de recouvrement. Des simulations Monte Carlo nous permettront d'évaluer les prédictions des pertes, aussi bien dans le cas de l'exploitation normale de notre institution financière qu'en cas de crises économiques hypothétiques. Notre échantillon provient d'une banque canadienne de la place.
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