Statistik Für Wirtschafts- Und Sozialwissenschaftler II: Induktive Statistik
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Sind bestimmte Parameter der Verteilung einer Zufallsvaria- blen unbekannt, so bieten statistische SchHtzmethoden die M6glichkeit, diese Parameter aus Stichprobenergebnissen zu schHtzen. Unter Parametern versteht man dabei zumeist Mo- mente der Verteilung der betrachteten Zufallsvariablen. 1st das verteilungsgesetz bekannt, so bezeichnet man als Para- meter die in diesem Verteilungsgesetz auftretenden Konstan- ten. Die in diesem Kapitel darzustellenden Problem16sungen basie- ren auf Zufallsst1chproben als Auswahlverfahren fUr die Stichprobenelemente, wodurch die Anwendung der Ergebnisse des Kap1tels 8 erm6gl1cht w1rd. Das Vorgehen beim SchHtzen soll nun gesch1ldert werden. Es sei e ein unbekannter Parameter der Verte1lung der Zufalls- var1ablen. Die SchHtzung dieses Parameters w1rd mit Hilfe e1ner Stichprobenfunktion durchgefuhrt. Jede Stichproben- funktion, die zur SchHtzung eines unbekannten Parameters herangezogen werden kann, heiSt eine SchHtzfunktion fur die- sen Parameter. Sie wird mit 0 bezeichnet. Da 0 von den zu- fallsvariablen X ' --- 'X abhHngig ist, kann man ausfuhrli- 1 n cher schreiben: 0 = D(X, x, ---, X ) oder auch D (X, ---, X ), 1 2 n 1 n n wenn die AbhHngigkeit der SchHtzfunktion vom Stichprobenum- fang hervorgehoben werden soll. Eine AusprHgung d(x, x, --., 1 2 xn) dieser SchHtzfunktion, die-sich aus einer realisierten St1chprobe ergibt, w1rd als NHherungswert des unbekannten Parameters verwendet. S1e heiSt SchHtzwert des Parameters. Man schreibt d(x, ---, x ) = e (lies: d ist SchHtzwert fur e).
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