Análise da relação entre despesas e programas sociais de assistência social no Brasil
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A Constitui��o Federal de 1988 foi a primeira no Brasil a referir-se �s desigualdades sociais e � assist�ncia social como uma pol�tica p�blica. Atualmente, existem v�rios programas que prestam assist�ncia � popula��o que vive em situa��o de extrema pobreza. Entre os programas existentes, os mais conhecidos s�o o Programa Bolsa Fam�lia e o Benef�cio de Presta��o Continuada, que t�m como principal tarefa a transfer�ncia de renda m�nima necess�ria para fam�lias que se enquadram nos crit�rios pr�-estabelecidos pelo governo e est�o inscritas no Cadastro Unificado de Benefici�rios de Programas Sociais. Este estudo tem como objetivo examinar a rela��o entre as principais vari�veis macroecon�micas e os gastos com pol�ticas de assist�ncia social do governo federal no per�odo de janeiro de 2004 a agosto de 2014. A metodologia a ser empregada para atingir este objetivo � o modelo de m�dia m�vel autorregressiva com vari�vel ex�gena ARMAX, o modelo de autoregress�o vetorial - VAR, o teste de causalidade de Granger, o teste de cointegra��o de Johansen e o modelo de corre��o de erros vetorial - VEC. As conclus�es alcan�adas foram positivas quanto a rela��es significativas entre as vari�veis macroecon�micas e os programas de assist�ncia social, ou seja, os programas influenciam a economia brasileira.
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