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Demographische Wirkungen Städtebaulicher Maßnahmen: Ein Verfahren Zur Kleinräumlichen Bevölkerungsprognose Auf Der Grundlage Der Wohnungsbelegung by Volker Kreibich

Demographische Wirkungen Städtebaulicher Maßnahmen: Ein Verfahren Zur Kleinräumlichen Bevölkerungsprognose Auf Der Grundlage Der Wohnungsbelegung

by Volker Kreibich
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783531030289
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Publisher Imprint: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 118
  • Original Price: USD 59.99
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 1981
  • Item Weight: 223 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Die vorliegende Studie berichtet abschlieBend Uber ein Projekt, in dem Daten aus dem Verwaltungsvollzug, die den Statistischen Amtern der Kommunen auf ge- setzlicher Grundlage zur VerfUgung stehen, detailliert aufbereitet und fUr die Analyse und Prognose der kleinraumigen Bevolkerungsentwicklung erschlossen wur- den. Dabei wurde von der Annahme ausgegangen, daB die kleinraumige Entwicklung der Einwohnerzahlen und die demographische Zusammensetzung der Bevolkerung vor allem von den Strukturen und der Entwicklung des Wohnungsbestandes bestimmt wird. Die Berechnung demographischer Belegungsmuster fUr Wohnungstypen (Wohnungsbe- legungsmuster) stand deshalb im Mittelpunkt des Projektes. Die Studie weist die Wohnungsbelegungsmuster empirisch nach und zeigt mogliche Wege zu ihrer Bestimmung auf. Dabei muBte haufig ethodisches Neuland betreten werden. So gelang es z. B. zum erstenmal, eine Gebaudedatei auf der Grundlage der Baufertigstellungsstatistik und eine Einwohnerdatei aus dem Meldewesen ge- baudeweise zu verknUpfen, urn die Belegung von Gebauden zu analysieren. AuBer- dem wurde ein Weg aufgezeigt, urn aus einer Gebaudedatei wohnungsbezogene In- formationen zu gewinnen. Damit konnten zum erstenmal Belegungsmuster fUr Woh- nungstypen auf der Grundlage regelmaBig anfallender Daten bestimmt werden. Ana- lysen und Prognosen der Bevolkerungsentwicklung fUr kleine Teilgebiete schei- terten bisher an den kleinen Einwohnerzahlen und an der kleinen Menge demogra- phi scher Ereignisse, die keine statistisch signifikanten Berechnungen zulie- Ben. Zur Losung dieses grundlegenden Problems wurden verschiedene Typisierungs- verfahren angewandt. SchlieBlich wurde noch die Grundversion fUr ein Prognose- modell entworfen, programmiert und mit Beispielen aus der stadtebaulichen Pra- xis getestet.

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