何以为证:在不确定的世界里寻找确定性
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你如何证明一种新的医疗方法是有效的?你如何说服法庭相信某人有罪?是什么让你相信一辆自动驾驶汽车是安全的,或者与陌生人进行一笔金融交易不会被骗?对于政府发布的一项政策,你需要哪种类型的证据?你会像哲学家、律师、计算机科学家或统计学家那样处理这些问题吗?还是用一种完全不同的方法?我们每天都会遇到不同的决策时刻,这些决定或大或小,有的如鸡毛蒜皮,还有的可能决定了我们的人生和发展路径。
真理的出现依赖于人们找到有效的分析方法,但对证据的接受程度也取决于社会因素。当你第一次听到某个权威人士对某个问题的回答时,你是否因为他的身份而相信了他?或者你更相信英国皇家学会的科学家们喜欢的格言 "不要相信任何人的话"?从错误信息和阴谋论到范式转变和科学分歧,这不仅仅是证据的问题,它也与围绕这些证据的社会动态有关。
数学的纯洁性和永恒性无疑是诱人的,无论是在科学领域还是其他领域。但这种确定性可能是一种错觉,数学证明并不总是像看起来那样笃定,不受任何人为因素的影响。
这本书将告诉你如何去挖掘真相、寻找证据,如何辨别一个权威人士说的话是正确还是错误的,以及如何在生活中做出蕞有利于自己的决策。
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