Accruals als Bestandteil von Gewinnen - Systematisierung und Beurteilung
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Inhaltsangabe: Einleitung: Der Prognose zukünftiger Überschüsse kommt im Rahmen der Bewertung von Unternehmen eine zentrale Rolle zu. Im Rahmen der externen Finanzanalyse wird dabei versucht, aus Informationen der Geschäftsberichte und besonders den Daten des externen Rechnungswesens zukünftig erwartete Überschussgrö en (Gewinne, Cash Flows) unter Verwendung der Zeitreiheneigenschaften (Persistenz") solcher Grö en sowie deren Komponenten zu schätzen. Nach der gängigen Literatur lassen sich Gewinne in zwei Komponenten zerlegen, zahlungswirksame Cash Flows und zahlungsunwirksame Accruals. Während Analysten in ihren Prognosen zumeist auf den Gewinn als Aggregat von Accruals und Cash Flow, sowie mit wachsender Bedeutung auf den Cash Flow selbst fokussieren, werden Accruals, im Gegensatz zur akademischen Forschung, weitaus weniger beachtet. Dies mag daran liegen, dass Ansätze zur Bestimmung von Accrual Grö en sehr verschiedenartig mit unterschiedlichen Qualitäten ausfallen. Die mangelnde Berücksichtigung von Accruals hat jedoch Auswirkungen auf die Prognosegüte von Gewinnschätzungen, weil beide Komponenten recht deutliche Unterschiede hinsichtlich ihrer Persistenzeigenschaft aufweisen. Damit verbunden ergeben sich zudem entsprechende Implikationen für eine angemessene Kapitalmarktbewertung von Accruals. In Anbetracht dessen hat sich ein gro er wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungszweig, insbesondere seit der Pionierstudie von Sloan (1996), mit einer Vielzahl empirischer Forschungsarbeiten entwickelt, wobei sich der Fokus dieser Studien nicht allein auf die Persistenz von Accruals beschränkt, sondern auch auf bilanzpolitische Aspekte erstreckt. In dem Zusammenhang wird versucht, leistungsfähige Accrual Modelle so zu gestalten, um Bilanzpolitik bzw. Earnings Management adäquat identifizieren und quantifizieren zu können. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit sollen Accruals als Bestandteil des Gewinns charakterisiert und beurteilt sowie deren Bewertungsrelevanz aus finanzwirtsch
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