Analyse und Bewertung von Risiken in IT-Offshoring Projekten: Ansätze zur Modellierung und Quantifizierung
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Das Auslagern von IT-Dienstleistungen in Niedriglohnländer ("Offshore-Outsourcing") ist mittlerweile weit verbreitet - dennoch treten oftmals während der Projektlaufzeit gravierende Probleme auf. Unternehmen klagen mitunter über verfehlte Kosteneinsparungen, Terminverzögerungen oder sinkende Qualität. Zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt existieren jedoch keine Studien, welche die zugrunde liegenden Ursachen mit ihren Wirkungs-zusammenhängen ausreichend analysieren und eine quantitative Risikoabschätzung ermöglichen. Diese Studie befasst sich daher mit der Entwicklung einer prototypischen Methodik für die Bewertung von IT-Offshoring-Risiken, wobei der Fokus auf Projekten zur Applikationserstellung in Unternehmen mit geringer Outsourcing-Erfahrung liegt. Dazu wurde im Anschluss an die Untersuchung des momentanen Forschungsstandes und die knappe Vorstellung der zurzeit verfügbare Risikomodelle ein probabilistisches Strukturmodell für die Darstellung und quantitative Analyse der Wirkungszusammenhänge entworfen. Die darauf folgende Identifizierung der einzelnen Modellelemente lieferte unter anderem etwa 100 Einflussfaktoren und 40 Risiken. Durch Expertenbefragungen bezüglich der Metriken und der Typisierung von Risikofaktoren wurde eine Quantifizierung durchgeführt, die eine grobe Einschätzung der Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von Risiken zulässt. Anhand eines exemplarischen Projektes fand die Verifizierung der Modellberechnungen statt.
Tim Uphaus, Diplom Wirtschaftsinformatiker, Studium der Wirtschaftsinformatik an der Friedrich-Alexander Universität in Erlangen, Abschluss 2006.
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