Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order - a US-led 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific', a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired 'Indo-Pacific Outlook' - is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability.
As Asia's leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms - and even, in the longer term, wider arms control - can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.
Professor Desmond Ball was Special Professor in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, having been head of the centre from 1984 to 1991. He was the author of more than 40 books or monographs on technical intelligence subjects, nuclear strategy, Australian defence and security in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor Ball served on the Council of the IISS from 1994 until 2000 and was Co-chair of the Steering Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific from 2000 until 2002. He was appointed Officer of the Order of Australia (AO) in 2014 prior to his passing in October 2016.
Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Her research interests focus on European and Asian arms trade, military spending and the arms industry. She was previously a Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurements at the IISS and an analyst at the French Ministry of Armed Forces.
Dr Tim Huxley was Executive Director of IISS-Asia until April 2021, where he played a leading role in organising the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and the IISS Fullerton Forum, leading IISS research on the Asia-Pacific and editing the annual IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment. Dr Huxley has worked for many years in the overlap between strategic studies and Asian area studies. His research and writing focus particularly on Southeast Asian states' security and defence policies, and the security roles of the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region. He was awarded an OBE for services to security in Asia in the UK's 2021 New Year Honours.
Professor C. Raja Mohan is Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and is one of India's leading foreign-policy commentators. He was previously Professor of South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, and at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Professor Mohan has also been associated with a number of think tanks in New Delhi and was the founding Director of Carnegie India. He writes a regular column for the Indian Express and was previously the Strategic Affairs Editor for the Hindu newspaper.
Professor Brendan Taylor is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, having been head of the centre from 2011-16. He is a specialist on great-power strategic relations in the Asia-Pacific, East Asian 'flashpoints' and Asian security architecture. He is the author or editor of 12 books, including The Four Flashpoints: How Asia Goes to War (Black Inc., 2018) and Dangerous Decade: Taiwan's Security and Crisis Management (IISS, 2019).
