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Bayesianisches vektorautoregressives Verfahren zur Prognose der Schweizer Wirtschaft by Rey, Lucien

Bayesianisches vektorautoregressives Verfahren zur Prognose der Schweizer Wirtschaft

by Lucien Rey
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9786208297886
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Verlag Unser Wissen
  • Publisher Imprint: Verlag Unser Wissen
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 56
  • Original Price: GBP 24.0
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 96 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Dieses Buch verwendet eine Methode zur Prognose des realen BIP und des Inflationswachstums in der Schweiz. In dieser von Litterman (1986) eingeführten Studie werden Prognosemodelle für die Schweizer Wirtschaft erstellt. Zunächst werden autodistributierte verzögerte Modelle (ARDL) berechnet, gefolgt vom Rahmen der Bayes'schen Modelle. Bayes'sche vektorautoregressive Modelle (BVARs) stützen sich stark auf den VAR-Rahmen, ermöglichen jedoch eine bessere Nutzung aller verfügbaren Informationen. Unter Verwendung der Daten von 1980 wurden Out-of-Sample-Prognosen von 2000 bis 2014 berechnet. Diese Studie schlägt vier Kategorien vor, in die Variablen eingeteilt werden, und stellt fest, dass Bayes'sche VAR-Modelle die Prognosefehler verbessern, vor allem bei der Inflation. Eine Erweiterung des Modells wird unter Verwendung ausländischer Daten durchgeführt, wodurch die Prognosefehler weiter reduziert werden. Es wurde festgestellt, dass die Vermögenspreise wertvolle Informationen für die Prognose des realen BIP und insbesondere für die Vorhersage des Inflationswachstums enthalten. BVARs können jedoch kein Ersatz für eine vollständige strukturelle Methode zur Analyse der Wirtschaftspolitik sein.

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