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Beschäftigung, Geld Und Preisniveaustabilität: Empirische Untersuchungen Zum Inflationsproblem by Artur Woll

Beschäftigung, Geld Und Preisniveaustabilität: Empirische Untersuchungen Zum Inflationsproblem

by Artur Woll
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783531026381
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Publisher Imprint: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 341
  • Original Price: EUR 51.39
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 1977
  • Item Weight: 549 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Seit Ende der tunfziger Jahre wird in Wissenschaft und Praxis das Phillips-Theorem diskutiert. Dieser Begriff dUrfte vielen nicht ge- laufig sein. In der Sache geht es urn die Frage, in welchem Verhaltnis Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit zueinander stehen und tur den Wirt- schaftspolitiker austauschbar sind, wenn Preisniveaustabilitat und Vollbeschaftigung nicht gleichzeitig erre cht werden konnen. Wie heute in der Volkswirtschaftslehre Ublich, werden Kontroversen nicht nur theoretisch, sondern auch empirisch ausgetragen. Die bisherigen empirischen Untersuchungen des Theorems fUr die Bundesrepublik Deutschland sind jedoch widersprUchlich. Diese WidersprUche waren AnlaB dieser Untersuchung, deren Ziel es ist herauszufinden, in wel- chern Umfang das Phillips-Theorem GUltigkeit besitzt. 1m Verlauf der Untersuchung ergab sich, daB WidersprUche in empirischen Untersuchungen zu einem wesentlichen Teil auf das Ubliche Verfahren bei Regressionsrechnungen zurUckzufUhren sind. Werden unterschiedliche Beobachtungszeitraume als Ganzes behandelt oder willkUrlich unterteilt, lassen sich abweichende oder entgegenstehende Regressionsergebnisse nicht vermeiden. Urn diese Schwierigkeit auszuschalten, sind fUr gleiten- de Zeitabschnitte Korrelationswerte errechnet worden. 1it dieser "zeit- entwickelten" Korrelationstechnik wurde das Phillips-Theorem fUr die Bundesrepublik erneut getestet - mit negativem Ergebnis. Nach zweijahri- ger Untersuchungsarbeit in den Jahren 1974 und 1975 muBten wir fest- stellen, daB zumindest hierzulande das Phillips-Theorem ein Phantom ist und damit dem Wirtschaftspolitiker keine Entscheidungsalternative bietet.

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