Contributions À l'Estimation de Quantiles Extrèmes
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Ces travaux s'inscrivent dans le contexte de la statistique des valeurs extrèmes. Ils y apportent deux contributions principales. La première contribution est de proposer un estimateur des quantiles extrèmes pour des lois de type Pareto aussi bien que pour des lois à queue de type Weibull. Son efficacité est illustrée sur des données simulées et sur un jeu de données réelles de débits de la rivière Nidd se situant dans le Yorkshire en Angleterre. La seconde contribution consiste à introduire et estimer une nouvelle mesure de risque appelé Conditional Tail Moment. Estimer cette mesure de risque permet d'estimer de nombreuses mesures de risque telles que la Value-at-Risk, la Conditional Tail Expectation, la Conditional Value-at-Risk ou la Conditional Tail Variance. Les estimateurs proposés combinent des méthodes d'estimation non-paramétrique à noyau avec des méthodes issues de la statistique des valeurs extrèmes. Le comportement de nos estimateurs est illustré sur des données réelles de pluviométrie provenant de la région Cévennes-Vivarais. Ce livre s'adresse aussi bien à un public de chercheurs, d'enseignants, de doctorants qu'à des étudiants de master.
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