Das Bayes'sche Theorem in der theoretischen und empirischen Forschung. Eine systematische Literaturübersicht
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Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2016 im Fachbereich VWL - Statistik und Methoden, Note: 1, Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: In der Statistik gibt es zwei grundlegende Arten des Schlussfolgerns: den "frenquentischen Ansatz" und den "bayesianischen Ansatz". Kennzeichnend für den Unterschied beider Ansätze ist das grundlegende Verständnis vom Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff, sodass der Disput zwischen den Frequentisten und den Bayesianisten eine der Hauptkontroversen in der Statistik des 20. Jahrhunderts ist. So sieht die frequentische beziehungsweise klassische Statistik die Wahrscheinlichkeit als etwas objektives, nämlich als Interpretation des Grenzwertes der relativen Häufigkeiten (relative frequency) eines zufälligen Ereignisses, wohingegen die Bayes'sche Statistik die Wahrscheinlichkeit als etwas subjektives auffasst, das den Grad der Plausibilität (degree of believe) einer Aussage oder eines Ereignisses erst dann wiedergibt, wenn eine bestimmte Information gegeben ist. Diese subjektive Auffassung von Unsicherheit spiegelt sich durch das Bayes'sche Theorem wieder. Das Theorem wurde nach dem englischen Geistlichen und Mathematiker Thomas Bayes (1702 - 1761) benannt (vgl. Gillies, 1987). Sein Werk "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" wurde post mortem von seinem Freund Richard Price veröffentlicht und formuliert nicht etwa das Theorem selbst, sondern den Bayes'schen Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff im Sinne einer subjektiven Einschätzung über das Eintreten eines Ereignisses, im Fall neu aufkommender Informationen. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob trotz der Nachteile der Bayes'schen Statistik, die theoretische und empirische Forschung ein Interesse an dessen Methoden und Techniken aufweist und wie dieses zu messen ist. Hierfür soll in dieser Arbeit durch eine systematische Literaturübersicht (SLR - Systematic Literature Review) der Einfluss des Bayes'schen Theorems, insbesondere der daraus resultierenden Bayes'sche
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