Demographische Analyse Und Populationsdynamische Modelle: Grundzüge Der Bevölkerungsmathematik
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Die Bevolkerungswissenschaft hat in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten einen l enormen Aufschwung genommen. Da die Demographie eine eigenstandige Wissenschaft bildet, kann heute kaum mehr geleugnet werden. Zumindest innerhalb des deutschen . Sprachraumes gibt es den ausgebildeten Bevolkerungs- wissenschaftler jedoch nicht. Hierzulande sind es Vertreter benachbarter Substanz- und Formalwissenschaften, welche demographische Problemstellungen behandeln. Ein entscheidendes Bindeglied zwischen diesen aus verschiedenen Lagern . stammenden "Demographen" ist die Beherrschung der grundlegenden Begriffsbildungen, Modelle und Methoden zur Analyse demographischer Phiinomene. Mit diesem RUstzeug, das als Grundsubstanz aller Bevolkerungswissenschaftler anzusehen ist, beschiiftigen sich die vorliegenden AusfUhrungen. Ihr Ziel ist erreicht, wenn dem Leser die N6twendigkeit der Analyse und des Modellbaues bei der Losung demographischer Fragen einsichtig wird. Bevolkerungsprobleme lassen sich haufig nur dann erfolgversprechend behandeln, wenn Vokabular und Grammatik der Sprache der Formaldemographie bzw. Bevolkerungsmathematik beherrscht werden. Nun existieren zwar einige hervorragende fremdsprachige BUcher zur formalen Demographie (Pressat, 1969, Henry, 1972, Keyfitz, 1968a und 1977, Pollard, 1973, Barclay, 1958, Coale, 1972) aber kein deutsch- sprachiges, welches eine ausgewogene EinfUhrung in die Formaldemographie vermittelt. Es scheint an der Zeit, eine mit schwerwiegenden demographischen Problemen konfrontierte Generation von Bevolkerungsforschern mit einem Lehrbuch auszuriisten, das einen formal orientierten Einstieg in die grundlegen- den Konzepte und Modelle der Demographie vermitteln soIl. Aufbau und Aus- wahl des Stoffes waren dabei vorwiegend durch didaktische Gesichtspunkte bestimmt. Keines der drei am Markt betindlichen Bevolkerungsstatistik-BUcher erflillt obige Intentionen ganz.
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