Der Gezähmte Diktator: Die Wirkung Von Menschenrechtsverfahren Auf Das Repressionslevel in Autokratien
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Der Umgang mit staatlich verantworteten Menschenrechtsverletzungen in Autokratien stellt die Weltgemeinschaft noch immer vor gro e Herausforderungen. Weder über militärische (humanitäre) Interventionen, Wirtschaftssanktionen noch über die Variation bei den Entwicklungshilfeleistungen konnte in der Vergangenheit die angestrebte Verbesserung der Menschenrechte erzielt werden. Die juristische Durchsetzung internationalen Rechts stellt eine relativ neue Alternative für die Weltgemeinschaft dar, eine Verbesserung der Menschenrechtslage in Autokratien herbeizuführen.
Der Autor überprüft den von Menschenrechtsverfahren in Nachbarländern auf Autokraten ausgehenden Abschreckungseffekt. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird auf Basis der Selektoratstheorie die abschreckende Wirkung von Menschenrechtsverfahren auf die Repressionsentscheidung eines Autokraten spieltheoretisch modelliert. Das Ergebnis der Gleichgewichtsanalyse dieses spieltheoretischen Modells wird im zweiten Teil der Arbeit empirisch überprüft. Dabei wird aufgezeigt, dass die Ausweitung der individuellen Rechenschaftspflicht von politischen Führern in Autokratien eine regimetypspezifische Abschreckungswirkung entfaltet.
Je nach Regimetyp kommt es mit einer ansteigenden Anzahl an Nachbarländern mit Menschenrechtsverfahren zu einer Verbesserung oder einer Verschlechterung der Menschenrechtslage. Folglich stellt die juristische Durchsetzung internationalem Rechts keine Ma nahme dar, mit der eine allgemeine Verbesserung der Menschenrechtslage in Autokratien erzielt werden kann.
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