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Dynamische Modelle in Der Empirischen Sozialforschung by Th Harder

Dynamische Modelle in Der Empirischen Sozialforschung

by Th Harder
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783519000419
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 120
  • Original Price: EUR 46.68
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 1973
  • Item Weight: 132 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Engineering (General)

Als eine Au enseiterbewegung begann vor 40 Jahren die Öko- nometrische Gesellschaft die ökonomische Theorie empirisch zu provozieren. Die Weltwirtschaftskrise hatte die Frage der Wirtschaftspolitiker nach brauchbaren Konjunktur- prognosen über den Völkerbund bis in akademische Zirkel hineindringen lassen, und so erfand Jan Tinbergen seine makro-dynamischen Modelle, die er mit Daten der U.S- und der englischen Wirtschaftsgeschichte konfrontierte. Die prognostische Effizienz dieser Modelle war alles andere als überwältigend, aber die Rückwirkung auf das Denken der Ökonomen war bedeutsam und wurde nur durch den gro en Erfolg der Theorie von John Maynard Keynes überschattet. Da die weltwirtschaftspolitisch heute hochaktuellen Computersimulationen anhand des Weltmodells von Forrester späte Nachfahren der makrodynamischen Modelle der ersten Ökonometriker sind, wird den wenigsten bewu t. Die Soziologie, die sich als krisenanalytische Wissenschaft par exellence versteht, hat von den früheren Ansätzen zur Dynamisierung und Empirie-Kopplung der makroökonomischen Theorie schon kaum Notiz genommen und kann sich im Augen- blick kaum entschlie en, aus der jüngeren Tradition des Selbstzweifels auszubrechen und sich den Problemen der sozialen Prognose und der Planung auf empirisch-theoretischer Grundlage zuzuwenden.

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