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Empirische Methoden zum Testen von Spekulationsblasen by Steinert, Jochen

Empirische Methoden zum Testen von Spekulationsblasen

by Jochen Steinert
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783656625186
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 28
  • Original Price: USD 26.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 50 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Management

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2003 im Fachbereich BWL - Sonstiges, Note: 2,3, Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen (-), Veranstaltung: Proseminar: Manias, Bubbles and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: "Warum weichen die Kurse von Aktien oder anderen Vermögenswerten in gewissen Zeiträumen von ihren fundamentalen Werten ab?" Dies ist eine Frage, die man durch den Nachweis der Existenz von Preisblasen, sogenannten 'Bubbles' beantworten könnte. Existieren solche Bubbles jedoch überhaupt? Die Meinung der Experten ist umstritten. So ist Eugene F. Fama, Ökonom an der Graduate School of Business der Universität Chicago in einem Interview mit der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung einer deutlichen Meinung: "Ich glaube nicht an spekulative Blasen. Diejenigen, die daran glauben, erkennen sie auch immer erst im nachhinein." 1 Robert J. Shiller, Professor der Universität Pennsylvania und im National Bureau of Economic Research tätig, widerspricht hingegen genau dieser Meinung und antwortet auf die Frage, ob es (immer noch) eine spekulative Blase an den Aktienmärkten gäbe mit einem ganz klaren "Ja", und sagt im nächsten Satz auch gleich, dass auch jetzt noch die Kurse erheblich von den Fundamentalwerten der Aktien abweichen. 2 Der Meinung folgt auch Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger Vernon Smith, Ökonom an der George- Mason- Universität in Fairfax (Virginia), der auf dieselbe Frage mit einem "Gewiss" antwortet. 3 Spekulative Blasen, wenn existent, sind eine gefährliche Sache, denn nach dem Platzen einer solchen befindet sich die Volkswirtschaft eigentlich immer in einer tiefen Rezession. Könnte man spekulative Blasen nachweisen, könnte man eventuell auch welche prognostizieren und dann Gegenma nahmen ergreifen. So empfahl die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich im vergangenen Jahre den Notenbanken besonders auf spekulative Blasen an den Finanzmärkten zu achten, um zur Abwehr gegebenenfalls die Leitzinsen erhöhen zu können. Dieser Eingriff ist jedoch a

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