Experimentelle Werbeerfolgsprognose
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Unter den betriebswirtschaftlichen Arbeiten iiber die optimale Absatzpolitik von Unternehmen gewinnen Untersuchungen iiber den rationalen Einsatz der Werbung immer mehr an Bedeutung. Das hier vorgelegte Werk von Fischerkoesen behandelt die Probleme, die bei der Datengewinnung fUr die Vorbereitung in der Werbeentscheidung auftreten. Er baut dabei auf einer allgemeinen Werbeerfolgsfunktion auf. Die Parameter dieser Prognosefunk- tion werden von Fischerkoesen empirisch bestimmt. Drei Hauptthesen werden von Fischerkoesen vertreten und stellen den Fort- schritt dar, den das vorliegende Werk gegeniiber der Vielzahl von Veroffent- lichungen, die zu dem Thema des Werbeerfolges in den letzten Jahren erschienen sind, bringt: 1. Die Praferenz des Konsumenten fUr ein bestimmtes Produkt kann durch die marginale Preisbereitschaft gemessen werden. 2. Die individualpsychologische Lernfunktion HiBt sich auf das sozialoko- nomische Problem der Ausbreitung der Werbung iibertragen. 3. Die experimentelle Werbeerfolgsprognose ist der Zeitreihenanalyse mit Extrapolation iiberlegen. Die erste These riickt die Werbeerfolgsprognose aus dem psychologisierenden Bereich auf okonomisches Gebiet und schafft damit die Voraussetzung fiir eine okonomisch rationale Werbeplanung. Die These wird durch ein Experi- ment bestatigt. Dieses Experiment wurde in meinem Seminar durchgefiihrt. Interessant ist auch das Ergebnis, daB signifikante Verschiebungen der Pra- ferenzen noch nicht zu Veranderungen der Verwenderanteile fiihren, wenn die Praferenzveranderungen nicht hinreichend groB sind. Damit hat Fischer- koesen experimenteU gezeigt, daB die in der Literatur iiberwiegend vertretene Ansicht, man konne den Werbeerfolg an Perzeptionszahlen, Apperzeptions- zahlen, Bekanntheitsgraden, semantischen Differentialen und ahnlichem messen, kaum haltbar ist, da der SchluB von diesen GroBen auf den Umsatz- erfolg nicht ohne weiteres moglich ist.
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