Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Name: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Brand: Princeton University Press
SKU: 9780691175973
Price: 1575.0 INR
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by Philip E. Tetlock

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ISBN13: 9780691175973
Binding: Paperback
Subject: N/A
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publisher Imprint: Princeton University Press
Publication Date: August 29, 2017
Pages: 368
Original Price: INR 2250.0
Language: English
Edition: Revised
Item Weight: 544 grams
BISAC Subject(s): Social Psychology and International Relations / General

About The Book

From the Back Cover

"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book ... that people who make prediction their business ... are no better than the rest of us."--Louis Menand, New Yorker"The definitive work on this question." --Gavyn Davies, Financial Times

"[This] book ... marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case.Expert Political Judgment... summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project.... The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that 'experts' exist at all."--Geoffrey Colvin, Fortune

"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University

"This book is just what one would expect from America's most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock's fascinating arguments."--Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University

About The Author

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

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