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Folgen Wechselkurse einem Random Walk? by Wößner, Heiko

Folgen Wechselkurse einem Random Walk?

by Heiko Wößner
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783638697538
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 52
  • Original Price: USD 26.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 82 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Economics / General

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2001 im Fachbereich VWL - Geldtheorie, Geldpolitik, Note: 1,0, Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen (VWL - Wirtschaftstheorie), Veranstaltung: Bestimmungsgründe des Wechselkurses: Erklärungsversuche und Puzzles, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: In den letzten Jahren bzw. Jahrzehnten hat sich das Volumen im Devisenhandel weltweit dramatisch erhöht, da mit zunehmend international orientiertem Handel die Bedeutung ausländischer Märkte für die heimische Wirtschaft stark gestiegen ist. Nahezu alle Unternehmen produzieren heutzutage nicht mehr nur für das Inland, sondern auch für den ausländischen Absatzmarkt. Au erdem sind oft auch einige Lieferanten in einem anderen Währungsraum beheimatet, so dass hier sehr schnell die Abhängigkeit der Firmen vom Wechselkurs erkennbar wird. Sowohl für Banken, die an ausländische Unternehmen oder auch Regierungen Kredite vergeben, als auch für Privatpersonen spielt das Verhältnis der nationalen Währung zu anderen eine wichtige Rolle. Eine Kernaussage der Portfoliotheorie besagt, dass durch Diversifikation des investierten Vermögens Risiko verringert werden kann. Mittels einer regionalen Streuung ist es möglich, die Folgen eines Schocks für ein einzelnes Land abzumildern. Werden Investitionen im Ausland getätigt, ist für die Gesamtrendite jedoch auch die Entwicklung des Wechselkurses von entscheidender Bedeutung. Begeben Regierungen oder Unternehmen am Kapitalmarkt Anleihen, die in fremder Währung notieren, so sind sie natürlich ebenso von Veränderungen des Währungswertes betroffen. Dies stellt nur eine kurz Übersicht über einige Akteure dar, die täglich mit Wechselkursschwankungen konfrontiert sind. Ihnen allen ist das Interesse an der zukünftigen Entwicklung gemeinsam, so dass hier Bedarf an Prognosen für künftige Kurse vorhanden ist. Lässt sich aber diese Nachfrage überhaupt so einfach befriedigen? Sind Wechselkursverläufe vorhersagbar?

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