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Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts

by Giuseppe Ferrero , Andrea Nobili , International Journal of Central Banking
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Current price ₹1,436.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
(-7%)
₹1,436.00
Current price ₹1,436.00

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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9781249557593
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Bibliogov
  • Publisher Imprint: Bibliogov
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 40
  • Original Price: USD 15.75
  • Language: English
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 91 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically significant, both in the euro area and in the United States. We find that these biases are significantly related to the business cycle only in the United States. Moreover, the sign and the significance of the estimated relationships with business-cycle indicators are unstable over time. Breaking the excess returns down into risk-premium and forecast-error components, we find that risk premia are countercyclical in both areas. On the contrary, ex post prediction errors, which represent the greater part of excess returns at longer horizons in both areas, are negatively correlated with the business cycle only in the United States.

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