Geldpolitische Regeln, Makroökonomische Stabilität und Inflation
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Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2010 im Fachbereich VWL - Makroökonomie, allgemein, Note: 1,7, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften), Veranstaltung: Makro- und Finanzmarktökonometrie, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die Seminararbeit behandelt das Paper: "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability and Inflation: A View from the Trenches" von Anthanasios Orphanides. In diesem schätzt er eine forward-looking Reaktionsfunktion der Geldpolitik für die Federal Reserve für die Zeit vor und nach der Ernennung Paul Volckers zum Chairman of the Board der US-Notenbank im Jahre 1979. Hierzu benutzt er Realtime-Daten des Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) aus den Jahren 1966 bis 1995. Im Verlaufe des Papers stellt er die Hypothese auf, dass sich die Politikregeln, die die Federal Reserve vermutlich verfolgte, gar nicht so unähnlich waren. Dies stünde im Widerspruch zur allgemeinen Sto richtung, die besagt, dass der Wechsel an der Spitze der US-Notenbank zur Folge hatte, dass die Geldpolitik drastisch verändert wurde. Orphanides hingegen will mit seinem Paper aufzeigen, dass sowohl vor als auch nach der Ernennung Paul Volckers zum Chairman of the Board, die Politik zukunftsorientiert war und dabei einen starken Wert auf die Inflationserwartungen gelegt hat. In der nun folgenden Ausarbeitung wird in Abschnitt 2 das Modell von Orphanides vorgestellt. Die Schätzfunktion wird anhand ihrer Parameter erklärt und ihr zukunftsorientierter Ansatz aufgezeigt. Ein kleiner Exkurs zum Modell von Clarida, Galí und Gertler (2000) wird präsentiert und Veränderungen werden aufgezeigt. In Abschnitt 3 findet eine Interpretation der Ergebnisse statt. Zuerst wird eine Erklärungsmöglichkeit für die Fehlinterpretationen gesucht. Anschlie end wird zum besseren Verständnis der Problematik der Zusammenhang zwischen Outputlücke und Inflation erklärt. Darauf folgend werden die Ergebnisse des vorliegenden Modells für die entscheidenden Parameter mit den
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