Globalisierung und Inflation - Die Implikationen eines veränderten Phillips-Kurven-Zusammenhangs
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Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich VWL - Geldtheorie, Geldpolitik, Note: 2,3, FernUniversität Hagen (Makroökonomik), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Abstract Das Phänomen der Globalisierung findet über seine politischen, ökonomischen und soziokulturellen Aspekte Eingang in alle Lebensbereiche. Mit der Globalisierung werden positive Effekte, wie beispielsweise der technologische Fortschritt in Transport und Kommunikation, verbunden. Vor allem in den Industrieländern induziert der Globalisierungsprozess jedoch auch Befürchtungen, im Besonderen vor beschleunigter Umweltzerstörung, ausländischer Konkurrenz und Migrationsbewegung. Annähernd gleichzeitig mit der zunehmenden Dynamik der internationalen Integration sind fast weltweit die Inflationsrate sowie die Volatilität von Output und Inflationsrate dramatisch zurückgegangen. Stock und Watson (2003) bezeichnen diese erfreuliche Entwicklung als "...great moderation". Für eine auf Stabilität ausgerichtete Wirtschaftspolitik liegt daher die Frage nach einem Zusammenhang zwischen diesen Beobachtungen nahe. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es an Hand der aktuellen Literatur die Wirkung einer zunehmenden Globalisierung auf die Beziehung zwischen Inflationsrate und Arbeitslosenquote, dem so genannten Phillips-Kurven Zusammenhang, zu untersuchen sowie der Frage nachzugehen, inwieweit sich die Struktur der Inflationsdynamik verändert hat und welche Konsequenzen sich daraus für die Geldpolitik ergeben. Die Arbeit ist wie folgt gegliedert. Im Abschnitt 2 erfolgt die Darstellung der Grundbegriffe sowie eine einleitende formale Beschreibung, auf die im Weiteren zurückgegriffen wird. Im Abschnitt 3 wird die Globalisierung in einzelne Formen differenziert und dann im Hinblick auf die jeweilige Bedeutung für die Preisentwicklung analysiert. Dabei werden die Effekte sechs verschiedener Wirkungskanäle, über die Globalisierung einwirken könnte, untersucht: (1) Importpreise, (2) globaler Güter- und Dienstleistungswettbewerb, (3) Arbeitsmarkt, (
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