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International Finance Discussion Papers: The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting

by Evan Koenig
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Current price ₹1,077.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
Original price ₹1,544.00
(-30%)
₹1,077.00
Current price ₹1,077.00

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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9781288731961
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Bibliogov
  • Publisher Imprint: Bibliogov
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 36
  • Original Price: USD 15.75
  • Language: English
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 82 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.

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