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Kombinationsprognose mit neuronalen Netzen by Saive, Nicolas

Kombinationsprognose mit neuronalen Netzen

by Nicolas Saive
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783656239154
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 60
  • Original Price: USD 39.5
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 91 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2011 im Fachbereich Ingenieurwissenschaften - Wirtschaftsingenieurwesen, Note: 1,7, Universität Hamburg, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Das Erstellen präziser Prognosen ist in der heutigen Zeit unverzichtbar, da vielerlei Planungsaktivitäten der Wirtschaft, Finanzwelt und Wissenschaft Vorhersagen über das zukünftige Verhalten von Variablen und Zeitreihen benötigen. Diese Vorhersagen unterstützen die strategischen Entscheidungen von Organisationen, welche dadurch ein erhebliches praktisches Interesse an Prognoseverfahren haben. Aufgrund der Existenz einer Unzahl von Interdependenzen und ständiger Veränderungen ist es jedoch gerade im Bereich der Wirtschaft zunehmend schwieriger akkurate Vorhersagen zu treffen. Das Bestimmen von Prognosen und anschlie ende darauf basierte Treffen von Entscheidungen kann für Unternehmen daher sowohl Chancen als auch Risiken bergen. Aufgrund der gro en praktischen Bedeutung von Prognosen ist die Entwicklung und Verbesserung von Methoden der Prognoseerstellung ein aktives und stark verbreitetes Forschungsgebiet, welches auch in aktueller Literatur viel Beachtung findet. Insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund gestiegener Volatilitäten im wirtschaftlichen Umfeld und den immer stärkeren globalen Verflechtungen gewinnen die Anforderungen an moderne Prognosesysteme am Bedeutung. Eine dieser modernen Prognosemethoden ist die Methode der Prognose mithilfe künstlicher neuronaler Netzwerke, welche seit dem Ende der achtziger Jahre neben den konventionellen Prognoseverfahren zunehmend Anwendung findet. Künstlich neuronale Netzwerke sollten ursprünglich die Erforschung von Vorgängen im menschlichen Gehirn unterstützen. Mittlerweile werden neuronale Netze jedoch in einer Vielzahl von Anwendungsgebieten wie der Optimierung, der Klassifizierung und auch der Prognose, erfolgreich eingesetzt. Die Nutzung von neuronalen Netzen zur Erstellung von Prognosen bringt jedoch auch eine Reihe von Problemen mit sich. Werden bei der Auswahl von

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