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Konjunktur: Stilisierte Fakten, Theorie, Prognose by Gunther Tichy

Konjunktur: Stilisierte Fakten, Theorie, Prognose

by Gunther Tichy
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783540574378
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Springer
  • Publisher Imprint: Springer
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 292
  • Original Price: EUR 37.37
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 2., Vollig Neu
  • Item Weight: 436 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Statistics

Im Bereich der Konjunkturforschung stehen einer F}lle neuer theoretischer Erkl{rungsans{tze, neuer statistischer und konometrischer Methoden und neuer empirischer Erkenntnisse - wenn auch auf hchstem Abstraktionsniveau -eine analytische Schw{che im Anwendungsbereich und ein {ngstlicher Attentismus im Bereich der Stabilisierungspolitik gegen}ber. Dieser Band will beitragen, diese "Neue Konjunkturdichotomie" zu }berwinden. Er sammelt die neuesten, vielfach noch widerspr}chlichen Erkenntnisse der Theorie und das Wissen aus sieben Jahrzehnten empirischer Konjunkturforschung. Es beschreibt die unterschiedlichen Formen der Messung des Konjunkturph{nomens, arbeitet die moderne Form der Wachstumsschwankungen heraus und vergleicht sie mit dem traditionellen Konjunkturzyklus. Dabei zeigt sich einerseits, da die Erscheinungsform weitgehend gleich geblieben ist, andererseits, da die Erkl{rungsversuche der Theorie zum Teil von einem einseitigen bis unrichtigen Bild der Konjunkturschwankungen ausgehen. Das beeintr{chtigt nat}rlich auch die Konjunkturanalyse und -prognose. Das Buch stellt die wichtigsten Prognosemethoden zusammen und untersucht ihre Treffsicherheit; dabei lassen sich keine systematischen Unterschiede zwischen den Methoden feststellen. Eine Verbesserung der Konjunkturprognosenkann allein aus einer besseren, empirisch besser fundierten Konjunkturtheorie kommen.

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