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Konjunkturdiagnose Und -Prognose: Eine Anwendungsorientierte Einführung by Roland Döhrn

Konjunkturdiagnose Und -Prognose: Eine Anwendungsorientierte Einführung

by Roland Döhrn
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783642364969
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Springer Gabler
  • Publisher Imprint: Springer Gabler
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 195
  • Original Price: EUR 30.83
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 2014
  • Item Weight: 341 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Economics / Macroeconomics

​Das Buch stellt das breite Spektrum der in der Konjunkturanalyse gebräuchlichen Verfahren vor und dokumentiert deren Anwendung ein Beispielen aus der Praxis. Besonderes Augenmerk gilt dabei der Frage, wie die verschiedenen Verfahren zusammenwirken und zu einer praxistauglichen Prognose zusammengeführt werden können. Dabei wird auch auf die Datengrundlagen eingegangen und für die Konjunkturanalyse notwendige Schritte der Datenaufbereitung - z.B. die Saisonbereinigung - dargestellt. Auf eine formale Darstellung der angewendeten Methoden (z.B. Faktoranalyse, Diskriminanzanalyse, Regressionsanalyse) wird dabei weitgehend verzichtet, vielmehr soll der Leser die hinter den Verfahren stehenden Ideen verstehen. Der abschlie ende Teil des Buches befasst sich mit der Evaluation von Prognosen, also der Beurteilung von deren Treffsicherheit.

Prof. Dr. Roland Döhrn ist Leiter des Kompetenzbereichs "Wachstum, Konjunktur, Öffentliche Finanzen" beim Rheinisch-Westfälischen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung und Honorarprofessor an der Universität Duisburg-Essen und Lehrbeauftragter an der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster. An beiden Hochschulen lehrt er das Fach "Konjunkturdiagnose und -prognose".

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