Les Modèles de Prévision Pour Les Cibles En Leveraged Buyout
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La caractérisation de la ou des cibles typiques de transactions "Leveraged Buyout" par des variables quantitatives et/ou qualitatives a été tentée à quelques reprises, sans pour autant avoir trouvé un consensus et des résultats très concluants. Ce travail de recherche permet non seulement de définir une cible LBO par des variables pré-LBO basées sur les états financiers, mais elle compare aussi la performance de quatre modèles de prévision différents pour les LBO, c'est-à-dire l'analyse discrimante, la régression logistique, les arbres récursifs et le réseau de neurones. En utilisant des firmes nord-américaines transigées sur les marchés publics aux Etats-Unis sur un horizon de janvier 2000 jusqu'à juillet 2007, ce travail essaie de capter les cibles de la bulle de LBO la plus récente. Plusieurs analyses transversales, en séparant les "Management Buyouts" des "Leveraged Buyout," les secteurs d'industrie et les firmes de petite taille des firmes de grande taille ont été réalisées. De plus, une série temporelle sert à tester la robustesse des variables dans le temps.
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