L'impact de la volatilité des taux de change sur le commerce
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La présente étude offre un panorama sur les interactions et les liens qui existent entre la volatilité des taux de change et les échanges internationaux. L'objectif de ce travail est donc de présenter théoriquement cette relation, puis d'examiner empiriquement l'existence d'une relation de causalité entre le commerce international et la variabilité des taux de change. La littérature portant sur la question supporte plusieurs controverses. Nous essayerons de pousser ces recherches un peu plus loin en réexaminant cette évidence pour le Canada et en offrant une investigation empirique sur l'existence éventuelle d'un impact significatif de la volatilité sur les flux désagrégées des exportations sectorielles du Canada vers les États-Unis. Toutefois, nos résultats obtenus ne nous permettent pas de conclure quant à la significativité relative d'une telle relation. Dans l'ensemble, même si on admet que les signe des coefficients estimés de la variable de risque dans chaque secteur est négatif, nous arrivons à la conclusion que la volatilité ne semble pas avoir un impact statistiquement significatif sur le volume réel des exportations du Canada vers les États-Unis.
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