L'impatto dei disavanzi di bilancio sul tasso di cambio
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Lo scopo del presente documento � determinare l'effetto dei disavanzi di bilancio pubblici sul tasso di cambio in Gambia utilizzando una serie di dati trimestrali che vanno dal primo trimestre del 1990 al secondo trimestre del 2008. Viene impiegato un modello VAR a cinque variabili che include il tasso di cambio, il tasso dei buoni del Tesoro, il prodotto interno lordo (PIL), l'indice dei prezzi al consumo (IPC) e i disavanzi di bilancio. Utilizzando il quadro di cointegrazione di Johansen, � stato riscontrato che esiste una relazione di lungo periodo tra queste variabili. Il test di causalit� di Granger afferma che esiste una causalit� bidirezionale tra i disavanzi di bilancio e il tasso di cambio. Utilizzando la funzione di risposta all'impulso (IRF) e la decomposizione della varianza dell'errore di previsione (FEVD), � stato esaminato l'impatto dei disavanzi di bilancio sul dalasi. Il risultato dell'IRF mostra che uno shock dei disavanzi di bilancio dell'1% deprezza il dalasi del 5% e del 23% rispettivamente nel primo e nel secondo trimestre. Anche la FEVD illustra che la variazione del tasso di cambio � in gran parte dovuta all'aumento dei disavanzi di bilancio. Le previsioni di questo articolo invitano i responsabili politici a essere consapevoli nel determinare la loro spesa, poich� questa ha un effetto duraturo sul dalasi.
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