Trends over the past decades show that Lone Wolf (LW) terrorism is on the rise around the world. To reach a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and its possible future trajectory, the authors of this book conducted a world wide study involving experts in security and related fields to investigate the drivers of this phenomenon and its potential course. Results were further discussed in international workshops in Italy and Israel. This book is largely based on the outcomes of this research.One conclusion was that future weapons available to Lone Wolves may be classed as weapons of mass destruction; another conclusion was that means of pre-detection could become much precise and effective. We believe that a new kind of arms race is developing. On one hand, is the possibility of increasingly destructive weapons falling into the wrong hands, and on the other, the development of new methods of surveillance and pinpointing individuals with malintent. Will the methods of detection be adequate and timely enough to avoid catastrophe? It is often said that one of the major purposes of futures research of the sort presented in this book is to provide lead-time to decision makers and the decision process. In the case of lone wolves we have some lead-time. We hope it will be used to reduce the threat we see in front of us. The book includes 200 pages and is based on informed speculation by experts and the results of detailed research about chances for lone wolf terror escalation and prevention. It describes some future weapons and means of detection. It explores the changIng role of cyber crime and the role of the Internet and reviews some approaches to follow if people with malintent are detected. It discusses the global legal and ethical situation. Finally, it offers some suggested policies that seem to reduce the chances for large scale catastrophe. It includes reference to over 100 cases of successful or thwarted attacks. Albert Einstein is supposed to have said, "The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing." We hope we have done something with this book.
Theodore Jay Gordon is a futurist and management consultant, a specialist in forecasting methodology, planning, and policy analysis. He is co-founder and Board member of The Millennium Project, a global think tank. He formed the consulting firm The Futures Group, was one of the founders of The Institute for the Future, and a consultant to the RAND Corporation. He is a frequent lecturer, the author of many technical papers and author or co-author of several books dealing with space, the future, life extension, and scientific and technological developments and issues. He is the author of the Macmillan encyclopedia article on the future of science and technology. Dr. Yair Sharan, a Col(ret) in the Israeli army, is currently the director of an Israeli consulting group that focuses on security and technology. He has been a senior associate researcher in Begin-Saadat Center for strategic studies (BESA) in Bar Ilan University in Israel. He was the director of the Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF) at Tel Aviv University, and was a senior consultant to the Israeli Ministry of Science in 1992-1993. Dr. Sharan served as Israeli Science Counselor in Germany Dr. Sharan is co-director of the Israeli Node of the Millennium Project, a member of the World Future Society and has been a member of the EU Foresight Expert Group. Elizabeth Florescu is Director of Research at The Millennium Project and is co-author of the annual "State of the Future", the report "Environmental Crimes, Military Actions, and the International Criminal Court", the "Analysis of the UN Millennium Summit Speeches", several articles, and invited reviewer at specialized magazines. She has been one of the principal investigators working on the monthly environmental scanning reports for the US Army Environmental Policy Institute, assessing worldwide environment and new technologies-related issues that might trigger future changes to international regulations with potential implications for the military. Ms. Florescu serves on committees and forums addressing issues related to S&T, environment, security, international regulations, ontology, and knowledge management.
