political science > political process / campaigns & elections
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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Without fair elections, there is no democracy. A thorough analysis of state and national exit polls has revealed discrepancies that are mathematically impossible. Informing the average voter of these anomalies is the goal of this book.
Richard Charnin graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. His first job was a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacturer (lunar module). He obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973). In 1976, Charnin moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978. When personal computers first became available in 1982, he converted many of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets - and years later to Excel. As an independent software consultant, Charnin specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In July 2004 he began posting weekly election projections based on state and national pre-election polls. The final forecast exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls which showed Kerry won by 51-47%, a 5-6 million popular vote margin and 337 electoral votes. In 2008, Charnin exactly forecast Obama's recorded vote (365 EV, 53% vote share). But the True Vote Model indicated that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% vote share, exactly matching the unadjusted exit polls. In 2012, the Election Model recorded vote forecast was once again on the money (332 EV, 51%). But the TVM indicated that Obama had 391 EV and 55%. The National Election Pool (six corporate media giants) decided not to exit poll in 19 states. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy. Of the 274 state presidential exit polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error (131 in favor of the Republicans). The probability is E-116. Just 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error.
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