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Moderne Modelle zur Wechselkursprognose: Theorie und Empirie by Hannemann, Felix

Moderne Modelle zur Wechselkursprognose: Theorie und Empirie

by Felix Hannemann
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783838690155
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Diplom.de
  • Publisher Imprint: Diplom.de
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 152
  • Original Price: GBP 86.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 209 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Inhaltsangabe: Einleitung: Seit dem Zusammenbruch des Bretton-Woods-Systems, Anfang der siebziger Jahre, kann von einem zwischen den wichtigsten Industrieländern bestehenden System flexibler Wechselkurse gesprochen werden. Doch auch zwei Jahrzehnte nach Beginn des Free Floating stellt die theoretisch fundierte Erklärung und Prognose des Verhaltens frei schwankender Wechselkurse ein weitestgehend ungelöstes Problem dar. Meese und Rogoff (MR) waren die ersten, die strukturelle vorzugsweise monetäre Wechselkursmodelle systematisch hinsichtlich ihrer Prognosefähigkeiten untersuchten. Das Ergebnis war entmutigend. Keines dieser Modelle lieferte genauere out-of-sample-Vorhersagen über einen ein-, sechs-, und zwölfmonatigen Prognosehorizont als ein naives random-walk-Modell. Wichtigen Entwicklungen im Bereich der Ökonometrie und die ansteigende Verfügbarkeit hochqualitativer Daten waren in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten die treibende Kraft hinter der enorm angewachsenen empirischen Wechselkursliteratur. Jedoch konnte der (fast schon dogmatisch erscheinende) Befund von MR nie eindeutig widerlegt werden. Vor kurzem veröffentlichten Cheung et al. eine stark an die Arbeit von MR angelehnte Studie, in der sie die Prognosegüte neuerer Wechselkursmodelle der neunziger Jahre überprüften. Doch auch hier mussten die Autoren feststellen, dass keines der Modelle nach traditionellen Kriterien nachhaltig besser abschneidet als ein reines Zufallsmodell. Das Interesse an der Erklärung und Prognose von Wechselkursschwankungen ist sowohl aus einzel- als auch aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Perspektive enorm. Angesichts der rasant voranschreitenden Internationalisierung unternehmerischer Aktivitäten, des stetig anwachsenden Welthandels relativ zum nationalen Handel sowie der kontinuierlich zunehmenden Kapitalmobilität kann der Wechselkurs wohl als die wichtigste Variable offener Volkswirtschaften angesehen werden. Aus mikroökonomischer Sicht beeinflusst seine voraussichtliche Entwicklung jedes Au

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