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Nichtlineare Dynamik des NKPC und Inflationsabweichung by Wajdi Frikha

Nichtlineare Dynamik des NKPC und Inflationsabweichung

by Wajdi Frikha
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9786209631733
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Verlag Unser Wissen
  • Publisher Imprint: Verlag Unser Wissen
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 60
  • Original Price: GBP 38.19
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 96 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

In diesem Beitrag werden die nichtlineare Inflationsdynamik innerhalb des hybriden NKPC-Rahmens und die Inflationsverschiebung f�r f�nf L�nder mit Inflationszielen anhand viertelj�hrlicher Daten von 1960 bis 2012 untersucht. Wir testen zun�chst die G�ltigkeit einer linearen NKPC und finden starke Belege f�r die Ablehnung der Linearit�t, insbesondere in Bezug auf die verz�gerte Inflation. Es zeigt sich, dass die Inflationsdynamik inh�rent nichtlinear ist und durch Regime-Switching-Verhalten gekennzeichnet ist, das durch vergangene Inflationsniveaus bestimmt wird. Um diese Merkmale zu erfassen, verwenden wir ein ESTR-Modell, das die nichtlineare hybride NKPC in allen L�ndern erfolgreich modelliert, wobei in Australien und Kanada schnellere �bergangsgeschwindigkeiten beobachtet werden.Die Analyse wird dann auf die Abweichung der Inflation vom Ziel ausgeweitet, um zu beurteilen, ob die Inflationspersistenz einen linearen Prozess mit langem Ged�chtnis oder Regimewechsel widerspiegelt. Die Ergebnisse st�tzen die Regime-Switching-Hypothese und weisen darauf hin, dass die Dynamik der Inflationsabweichung �berwiegend nichtlinear ist. Insgesamt unterstreichen die Ergebnisse, wie wichtig die Ber�cksichtigung nichtlinearer Inflationsdynamiken bei der Bewertung von Inflationszielen und der Wirksamkeit der Geldpolitik ist, insbesondere in Zeiten eines steigenden Inflationsdrucks.

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