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Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft Im Umbruch: Computersimulation Mit Einem Systemdynamischen Modell by Peter Fleissner

Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft Im Umbruch: Computersimulation Mit Einem Systemdynamischen Modell

by Peter Fleissner
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783528051921
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 218
  • Original Price: EUR 51.39
  • Language: German
  • Edition: Softcover Repri
  • Item Weight: 381 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Econometrics

Die Wirtschaft im Raum der ehemaligen DDR befindet sich in einer Uber- gangsphase. Der Wechsel des Ordnungssystems geht mit einem tiefen wirt- schaftlichen Einbruch einher. Die tiber Jahrzehnte gewachsenen Wirtschafts- strukturen halten dem Wettbewerbsdruck der Marktwirtschaft nicht stand und fallen auseinander. Neues tritt erst allmahlich und zeitlich versetzt an deren Stelle. Eine Ubergangswirtschaft bildet sich heraus, in der das alte, planwirt- schaftliche System nicht mehr und das neue, marktwirtschaftliche System noch nicht das Wirtschaftsgeschehen bestimmt. Eine solche Situation ist nicht nur fUr die Wirtschaftspolitik und die Wirt- schaftstheorie eine groBe Herausforderung, sondern auch fUr die wirtschafts- mathematische Modellierung. Aber kann sie tiberhaupt zur wissenschaftlichen ErkIarung und Prognose des turbulenten Geschehens beitragen? 1st ein solcher Versuch nicht von vornherein zum Scheitern verurteilt, wenn tiber das Ver- halten der Wirtschaftssubjekte in der Umbruchphase genau so wenig Erfah- rungswerte und zuverlassige Informationen vorliegen wie zur Systemtransfor- mati on iiberhaupt? Die Antwort auf diese Fragen hangt in erster Linie von der Wahl der Untersu- chungsmethode abo Die vorliegende Modellierungssituation mit ihren Diskon- tinuitaten, Strukturbrtichen und Instabilitaten der Entwicklung ist erfaBbar mit der Methode der Systemdynamik. Sie bildet die Grundlage des im folgenden dargestellten Ubergangsmodells Ostdeutschlands von der Plan-zur Marktwirt- schaft und der mit ihm durchgefUhrten Modellexperimente. Kapitel 1 hat die Ausgangslage der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Ubergang zur marktwirtschaftlichen Ordnung zum Gegenstand. Die Erstarrung des plan- wirtschaftlichen Systems und seine Entwicklungsschwachen in den achtziger Jahren werden analysiert. Der Stand der Entwicklung wird von verschiedenen Seiten gegentiber der frtiheren Bundesrepublik eingeschiitzt.

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