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Prédire Le Choc Pandémique by Olamide Omotosho

Prédire Le Choc Pandémique

by Olamide Omotosho
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9786209525469
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Editions Notre Savoir
  • Publisher Imprint: Editions Notre Savoir
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 60
  • Original Price: GBP 38.19
  • Language: French
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 96 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Cette recherche s'attaque � une faiblesse cl� des cha�nes d'approvisionnement m�dicales mondiales r�v�l�e par la pand�mie de COVID-19. Elle cr�e un nouvel indice composite g�opolitique-financier (GFCI) qui servira de syst�me d'alerte pr�coce. L'�tude d�passe les anciens mod�les r�actifs en combinant diff�rents indicateurs de risque tels que l'instabilit� politique, les fluctuations financi�res, les changements de politique commerciale et les performances en mati�re de transport maritime en un seul score. Nous avons construit cet indice � l'aide d'une analyse des composantes principales et test� sa pr�cision � l'aide de donn�es r�elles de la p�riode de crise 2020-2023. Les r�sultats montrent que l'indice GFCI signale de mani�re fiable les p�nuries imminentes de fournitures m�dicales environ trois mois � l'avance. Cela a �t� confirm� par de fortes corr�lations statistiques et par l'analyse ROC. Le r�sultat final est un cadre pratique d'alerte pr�coce et d'att�nuation qui transforme les alertes du GFCI en actions sp�cifiques, comme la recherche de nouveaux fournisseurs ou la constitution de r�serves. Ce travail fournit aux d�cideurs politiques et aux organismes de sant� un outil proactif, bas� sur des donn�es, pour construire des cha�nes d'approvisionnement plus solides et mieux se pr�parer aux futures pand�mies.

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