Probabilidad: Elementos para modelar situaciones con incertidumbre
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Este libro es un aporte a la enseñanza de los fundamentos de la modelación probabilística, la estadística y sus aplicaciones, una tarea compleja y que tiene requerimientos muy diferentes según la formación profesional de la persona a quien vaya dirigida y -algo muy importante- según su interés particular. La aplicación exitosa de las matemáticas en cualquier campo requiere de una adecuada modelación de la situación de interés. Al hablar de modelación probabilística -proceso que gobierna la orientación del libro- estamos aceptando la existencia de una ley de probabilidades propia del objeto -población o fenómeno en estudio-, e independiente del sujeto que lo estudia. Bajo esta hipótesis, la modelación intenta establecer la forma de esa ley. El presente es un texto dirigido a quienes requieran tomar decisiones en situaciones de información incierta, y particularmente a quienes laboran en los campos de la ingeniería, la economía y la administración en general. Está organizado en tres partes: la primera presenta las nociones básicas de probabilidad y estadística; la segunda, los fundamentos para la modelación probabilística y algunos modelos de uso frecuente; y la tercera, algunos temas requeridos para avanzar en dicha modelación, junto con otros modelos que también son utilizados con frecuencia. Finalmente, las ideas y conceptos contenidos en este libro se desarrollan de una forma clara y precisa, con el estilo pedagógico que caracterizó al profesor Osuna a lo largo de su extensa carrera docente.
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