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Procedimento Vetorial Autoregressivo Bayesiano para a previsão da economia suíça by Rey, Lucien

Procedimento Vetorial Autoregressivo Bayesiano para a previsão da economia suíça

by Lucien Rey
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9786208297985
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
  • Publisher Imprint: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 56
  • Original Price: GBP 24.0
  • Language: Portuguese
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 96 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): General

Este livro adopta uma metodologia de previsão do crescimento real do PIB e da inflação na Suíça. Introduzido por Litterman (1986), este estudo constrói modelos de previsão para a economia suíça. Em primeiro lugar, são calculados modelos com desfasamento autodistribuído (ARDL), seguindo-se o enquadramento dos modelos Bayesianos. Os modelos vectoriais autoregressivos bayesianos (BVAR) baseiam-se fortemente no quadro VAR, mas permitem uma melhor exploração de toda a informação disponível. Utilizando os dados de 1980, foram calculadas previsões fora da amostra de 2000 a 2014. Sugerindo quatro categorias em que as variáveis são agrupadas, este estudo conclui que os modelos VAR bayesianos melhoram os erros de previsão, principalmente no que respeita à inflação. É efectuada uma extensão do modelo utilizando dados estrangeiros, o que reduz ainda mais os erros de previsão. Verifica-se que os preços dos activos contêm informações valiosas para a previsão do PIB real e, em particular, para a previsão do crescimento da inflação. No entanto, os modelos BVAR não podem substituir um método estrutural completo para a análise das políticas económicas. No entanto, estes modelos tendem a produzir bons resultados de previsão e, por conseguinte, devem ser utilizados como modelos de previsão complementares de referência para o Banco Nacional Suíço.

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