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Prognose Modelle im Retail Property Sector by Schreiner, Dagmar

Prognose Modelle im Retail Property Sector

by Dagmar Schreiner
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783656242437
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 38
  • Original Price: USD 26.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 64 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Management

Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich BWL - Sonstiges, Note: 1,3, Universität Regensburg, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Ambivalenz von Prognosen Einerseits sehnen sich die Menschen danach, einer vorgegebenen Richtung zu folgen, andererseits ist jedem - zumindest implizit - bewusst, dass Prognosen mit Fehlern behaftet sind. Diese können zum Beispiel sein: 1. Abhängigkeiten verschiedener Risiken (systemische Risiken) werden nicht ausreichend berücksichtigt 2. Es gibt zu wenige Daten bzw. frühere Trends weichen extrem von dem zu erwartenden künftigen Verhalten ab 3. Man verlässt sich zu sehr auf die einmal erstellten Modelle Es stellt sich nun die Frage, wie und was man prognostizieren soll und kann. In der vorliegenden Arbeit sollen diese Fragen beantwortet werden. Zunächst wird kurz der Stand der Forschung beleuchtet. Anschlie end werden der Retail Property Sector und Prognosen an sich definiert und abgegrenzt. Im Hauptteil der Arbeit werden mögliche Klassifikationen verschiedener Prognosetechniken vorgestellt. Anhand der Einflussfaktoren auf den Einzelhandel wird untersucht, welche Prognosetechniken hier sinnvoll sein können. Durch eine Umfrage unter den grö ten in Deutschland vertretenen Shoppingcenter Entwicklern, Eigentümern, Beratern und Dienstleistern wird gezeigt, welche Techniken in der einzelhandelsbezogenen Immobilienwirtschaft verwendet werden. Es wird beurteilt, ob es sinnvoll ist, diese Methoden beizubehalten, zu revidieren oder mit anderen Prognoseansätzen zu kombinieren. Aus diesem Grund werden zwei ausgewählte Prognosemodelle und deren einzelhandelsrelevanten Spezifikationen allgemein vorgestellt.

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