Realzins, Inflation Und Kapitalzins: Eine Neuinterpretation Des Fisher-Theorems
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Irving Fisher hat gegen Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts den generellen Zu- sammenhang zwischen Zinssätzen, die in unterschiedlichen Rechenein- heiten ausgedrückt sind, und Wertänderungserwartungen für diese Re- cheneinheiten theoretisch und empirisch untersucht. Er formulierte speziell die Hypothese einer sofortigen, direkten und vollständigen Anpassung von nominalen Zinssätzen finanzieller Aktiva an erwartete Veränderungen der Kaufkraft des Geldes. Diese Hypothese implizierte konstante, von Inflationserwartungen nicht beeinfluete Realzinssätze. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten seit Ende des 2. Weltkrieges wurde das Fisher-Theorem "wiederentdeckt". Für das zunehmende Interesse sorgten insbesondere die moderne Monetarismus-Diskussion mit der ebenfalls "wiederentdeckten" Quantitätstheorie des Geldes und die anhaltenden Inflationserscheinungen in den westlichen Industrienationen. Der Zu- sammenhang zwischen "Appreciation and Interest" - so der Titel von Fishers Pionierarbeit im Jahre 1896 - wurde ein zentraler Bestandteil der modernen Geldtheorie. Das Postulat einer langfristigen Neutrali- tät des Geldes und der Inflation in Bezug auf reale Grõeen wie Pro- duktion und Beschäftigung impliziert konstante Realzinssätze. Das Fisher-Theorem wurde so in wesentliche Bereiche der neueren, dem Inflationsphänomen zugewandten Wirtschaftstheorie einbezogen: Es spielt eine Rolle bei der Analyse einzelner Finanzmärkte im nationalen und internationalen Bereich; es ist Teil der mikroõkonomischen, inter- temporalen Preistheorie und der makroõkonomischen Theorie der Investi- tionen und Konjunkturschwankungen; es steht hinter dem praktischen und wirtschaftspolitischen Realzinskalkül für einzelne Märkte oder Volks- wirtschaften, eingeordnet in Berechnungen mit realen, preisbereinig- ten Grõeen überhaupt.
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