Simulationsmodelle Ganzer Unternehmungen
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Der Verfasser sieht sich an dieser Stelle verpflichtet, all denen zu danken, durch deren gro zügige Unterstützung die Fertigstellung die- ser Arbeit ermöglicht wurde. Dieser Dank gilt zunächst meinem Doktorvater, Prof. Dr. Herbert Jacob, der meine Bemühungen mit Rat und Hilfe begleitet hat. Unterstützt wurde ich ferner durch wert- volle Hinweise, die ich in zahlreichen Interviews in Deutschland und in den USA erhielt. Wichtig für das Gelingen der Arbeit waren dabei insbesondere die Gespräche mit Prof. Dr. Erich Gutenberg in Köln und Prof. Douglas Daetz, Ph. D. an der Stanford University/USA. Nicht zuletzt ist an dieser Stelle Herrn Orhan Oezada vom Rechen- zentrum der Universität Harnburg zu danken, durch dessen unermüd- liche Hilfsbereitschaft zahlreiche technische Schwierigkeiten in kur- zer Zeit überwunden werden konnten. Inhaltsverzeichnis Seite Vorwort 1) Zielsetzung und Aufbau der Arbeit . 1 2) Definitionen . . . . . . . . . . . 2 a) Der Begriff der Simulation . . . 2 b) Der Begriff der Unternehmung . 4 c) Der Begriff des Simulationsmodells einer ganzen Unternehmung . 5 3) Die Simulation ganzer Unternehmungen und die Theorie der Unternehmun4t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 a) Probleme in der traditionellen Theorie der Unternehmung . 7 a1) Grundlagen und Annahmen der traditionellen Theorie 7 a2) Kritik der Prämissen . . . . . . . . . . . 9 b) Die Leistungsfähigkeit traditioneller Methoden. 10 b1) Marginalanalyse . . . . . . . . 10 b2) Lineare Programmierung . . . . . . . . 13 c) Die Leistungsfähigkeit der Simulation . . . . . 16 d) Die Notwendigkeit von Simulationsmodellen der Unternehmung 18 4) Der Stand der Entwicklung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 a) Der gegenwärtige Umfang der prakti. scllen Anwendung von Simulationsmodellen ganzer Unternehmungen . . . . . . 21 al) Empirisdle Angaben zur Zahl und zum Anwendungsbereich der Modelle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . .
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