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Smart Money? Der Erfolg von Prognosemärkten by Jester-Pfadt, Tim Oliver

Smart Money? Der Erfolg von Prognosemärkten

by Tim Oliver Jester-Pfadt
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783656696322
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 52
  • Original Price: USD 34.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 82 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Industries / General

Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2013 im Fachbereich BWL - Bank, Börse, Versicherung, Note: 1,7, Universität Trier, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: "If only HP knew what HP knows, we would be three-times more productive." Ob Wissensmanagement im Unternehmen oder Umfragen zu kommenden Wahlen, das Problem ist beide Male das Gleiche: "Wie können über mehrere Personen gestreute Informationen gesammelt und zugänglich gemacht werden?" Hayek (1945) sprach bereits von der Fähigkeit von Märkten Informationen zu sammeln. Aktionäre werden z. B. Meldungen über die künftige Ertragslage eines Unternehmens nutzen, um daran den fairen Wert seiner Aktien zu beurteilen und entsprechend zu handeln. In Prognosemärkten wird diese Rolle der Märkte genutzt, um Vorhersagen zu bestimmten Ereignissen treffen zu können. Seit 1988 wird an der Universität von Iowa daher der Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) betrieben, um u. a. Vorhersagen zu den amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen zu treffen. Der Erfolg dieses Marktes und die Verbreitung des Internets, in dem sich Informationen schnell verbreiten, hat zu einem steigenden Interesse an Prognosemärkten in den letzten Jahrzehnten geführt. Der Anwendungsbereich ist stark gewachsen und erstreckt sich mittlerweile von der Vorhersage von Oscar-Nominierungen bis hin zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Mondbasis vor dem Jahr 2025. Auch gro e Konzerne nutzen mittlerweile Prognosemärkte um bessere Entscheidungen treffen zu können (Cowgill et al., 2009). Dem Urteil der Märkte kommt daher gro e Bedeutung zu, da es Einfluss auf die Wahl und Umsetzung von teuren Investitionen haben kann. Angesichts dessen stellt sich im Rahmen dieser Arbeit die Frage, ob Prognosemärkte in der Lage sind stets effiziente Vorhersagen zu treffen, die dieser Rolle gerecht werden. In Kapitel 2 wird dafür als erstes eine theoretische Grundlage geschaffen, welche die Grundprinzipien, auf denen diese Märkte aufbauen, erklärt. Dabei wird gezeigt, wie Prognosemärkte Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Erwartungswerte

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