Untersuchung zur Verbesserung der Absatzprognosen von Handelsprodukten in Klein- und Mittelbetrieben (mit Künstlichen Neuronalen Netzen)
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Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 1999 im Fachbereich Ingenieurwissenschaften - Wirtschaftsingenieurwesen, Note: 2, Fachhochschule für Wirtschaft Berlin, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: In den letzten Jahren wurde innerhalb des zyklischen Berichtswesens für die Geschäftsleitung der INBITEC GmbH wiederholt festgestellt, da die Lagerbestände durchschnittlich viel zu hoch waren. Diese hätten jährlich 20 - 25 % geringer sein können. Das betraf das Verkaufslager und auch das Ersatzteillager. Auf der anderen Seite gab es jedoch immer wieder Zeiten, in denen die Verkaufsnachfrage plötzlich so gro war, da die Lagerbestände nicht nur unter den sogenannten Minimalbestand fielen, sondern komplett erschöpft waren. Verbunden war dieser Zustand dann mit erheblichen Beschaffungsproblemen. Das bezieht sich sowohl auf den zeitlichen Aspekt als auch darauf, da günstige Einkaufsquellen und Rabatte nicht genutzt werden konnten. Hinzu kommen noch eine Reihe anderer Probleme: Auf Grund der personellen Engpässe im Verkauf und im Service mu ten Mitarbeiter aus anderen Bereichen eingesetzt werden. Auch ist in diesem Zusammenhang der Aspekt der Kundenunzufriedenheit und des Kundenverlustes nicht zu unterschätzen. Alles in allem waren dies stets Situationen, die von kurzfristiger operativer "Schadensbekämpfung" gekennzeichnet waren. Auffällig ist auch noch der Umstand, da solche Abverkaufsspitzen über die vergangenen Jahre mit mehr oder weniger Regelmä igkeit eintraten. Es stellt sich somit an dieser Stelle die Frage, ob auf der Grundlage einer verbesserten Prognoseerstellung eine längerfristige strategische Absatzplanung, und damit verbundene Lager- und auch Personalplanung, möglich ist.
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