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Valutazione del Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio raggio by Ugbah, Paul

Valutazione del Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio raggio

by Paul Ugbah
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9786208043407
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Edizioni Sapienza
  • Publisher Imprint: Edizioni Sapienza
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 60
  • Original Price: GBP 39.0
  • Language: Italian
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 100 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Earth Sciences / General

È stata condotta un'analisi per valutare le prestazioni della previsione sub-stagionale-stagionale (S2S) del Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio raggio (ECMWF) sulla Nigeria meridionale, con l'obiettivo di calcolare l'abilità per misurare la qualità della previsione durante il periodo 1995-2015 e durante gli anni di El Nino e La Nina. L'analisi dei risultati ha mostrato distorsioni negative con tempi di previsione da una a quattro settimane. I bias e l'RMSE aumentano con il lead time, mentre i valori di ACC sono migliori con un lead time di una settimana e peggiori con un lead time di quattro settimane. Con tempi di anticipo di 2-4 settimane, il bias di siccità è particolarmente forte dalla fine di giugno a luglio. Ciò suggerisce difficoltà nella previsione di precipitazioni sparse durante il monsone dell'Africa occidentale (WAM), quando la Zona di convergenza intertropicale (ITCZ), chiamata anche ITD, si trova a nord della regione. Anche le previsioni durante gli anni di El Nino sono state migliori di quelle degli anni di La Nina, mentre le previsioni durante gli anni di La Nina sono peggiori durante il periodo della Piccola Stagione Secca (LDS) in luglio e agosto nell'area di studio. Questo potrebbe essere associato alla teleconnessione tra gli eventi ENSO e le precipitazioni nell'area di studio.

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