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Verification and Comparison of Polar MM5 and AFWA MM5 Forecasts Over Alaska by William E. Courtemanche

Verification and Comparison of Polar MM5 and AFWA MM5 Forecasts Over Alaska

by William E. Courtemanche
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9781288254736
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Biblioscholar
  • Publisher Imprint: Biblioscholar
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 96
  • Original Price: GBP 11.95
  • Language: English
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 146 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology

The Mesoscale Model 5th Generation (MM5) is used for operational support to Air Force missions in the Alaskan Theater. The 11th Operational Weather squadron has identified problems with the MM5 producing excessively warm surface temperature forecasts. The Polar MM5 (PMM5), developed by the Byrd Polar Research Center for the high latitude ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, is tested over the Alaskan domains used by the Air Force Weather Agency to determine the utility in replacing the MM5 with the PMM5. The verification of surface temperature, pressure and wind as well as upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and relative humidity of 27-hour PMM5 forecasts are compared to the MM5 forecasts to assess the differences between the models' accuracies. A grid-to-station inverse-weighted linear interpolation technique is used to compare model output to surface observation for 71 locations and to radiosonde upper-air observations for 7 locations. The results are based on 67 forecasts made over a 4-month period during the Fall-Winter of 2001.

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