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Wahlprognosen im Internet: Innovative Ansätze in der Wahlforschung am Beispiel von Internet-Wahlwetten by Tiesmeyer, Markus

Wahlprognosen im Internet: Innovative Ansätze in der Wahlforschung am Beispiel von Internet-Wahlwetten

by Markus Tiesmeyer
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783836654418
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Diplomica Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Diplomica Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 134
  • Original Price: USD 69.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 245 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Political Ideologies / General

In der Bundesrepublik sorgten jahrzehntelange feste Bindungen sozialstruktureller Formationen an bestimmte Parteien für eine hohe politische Stabilität. Traditionelle Stammwählerschaften aber lösen sich auf und anstelle dessen tritt der Wechselwähler, der bereit ist, ständig seine politische Präferenz zu ändern. Zunehmend mobile Individuen machen die adäquate Durchführung einer klassischen Befragung als Grundlage zur Erstellung von Wahlprognosen immer schwieriger und die Deutung sozialer Phänomene in Gro gruppen-Kategorien wird angesichts von Pluralisierungs- und Individualisierungstendenzen kontrovers diskutiert. Die Untersuchung neuer Methoden zur Erstellung von Wahlprognosen scheint deshalb sinnvoll und notwendig. Das universelle Kommunikationsmedium Internet bietet sich für die Erprobung innovativer Instrumente in der Wahlforschung an. Zur Bundestagswahl 1998 hat die Forschungsgruppe Internetwahlen an der Universität Osnabrück erstmals durch eine Wette im Internet das Ergebnis einer Wahl vorhergesagt. Mit diesem denkbar einfachen und kostengünstigen Prinzip gelang eine präzise Prognose auf das Wahlergebnis, die besser war als die Umfrageergebnisse der kommerziellen Meinungsforscher. Eine weitere Internet-Wahlwette folgte zur Bundestagswahl 2002. Dabei konnten umfangreiche Daten für eine spätere wissenschaftliche Untersuchung erhoben werden. Die Erkenntnisse der vorliegenden Studie stützen sich auf eine Online-Umfrage mit 647 Teilnehmern und auf den systematisch erfassten soziodemographischen Merkmalen aller 2.883 Mitspieler. Zudem konnten 30 renommierte Wahlforscher dazu gewonnen werden, ihren persönlichen Wahltipp abzugeben. Die Resultate geben Aufschluss, warum es offenbar immer wieder gelingt, präzise Prognosen auf der Basis einer einfachen Wette zu erstellen und zeigen Wege auf, die anhand der gewonnenen Erkenntnisse aussichtsreich erscheinen, zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität von Internet-Wahlwetten beizutragen.

Markus Tiesmeyer, Studium der Sozialwissenschaften an der Universität Osnabrück. Abschluss im Jahr 2004 als Diplom Sozialwirt. Gründungsmitglied der Forschungsgruppe Internetwahlen, dort tätig bis 2005. Derzeit tätig als IT-Administrator an der Universität Osnabrück und selbständiger Webdesigner.

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