Zentralbankunabhängigkeit und das Problem der Zeitinkonsistenz
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Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 2008 im Fachbereich VWL - Geldtheorie, Geldpolitik, Note: 1,7, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Alfred-Weber-Institut), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: In Vorbereitung auf die Europäische Währungsunion und dem Aufbau der Europäischen Zentralbank wurde ein besonderes Augenmerk auf die Unabhängigkeit und der damit verbundenen Glaubwürdigkeit der neuen Notenbank gelegt. Die Erfahrungen in der Vergangenheit haben gezeigt, dass von politischen Entscheidungsträgern abhängige Währungshüter, zu einem gro en Teil, zu inflationärem Verhalten tendieren. In Zeiten schlechter Konjunkturlage versuchen Regierungen durch übertriebene Kritik des Öfteren Druck auf Zentralbanken auszuüben, um durch geldpolitische Ma nahmen Beschäftigungseffekte generieren zu können. Der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Forschung ist der negative Zusammenhang zwischen Arbeitslosigkeit und Inflation schon lange ein Begriff. Als oberste Präferenz haben Politiker nahezu aller Parteien, die an einer Wiederwahl interessiert sind, eine niedrige Arbeitslosigkeit. Schon Altkanzler Helmut Schmidt vertrat die Meinung: "5% Inflation sind besser als 5% Arbeitslosigkeit". Könnte demnach eine Regierung die Währungshüter einer Volkswirtschaft beeinflussen, wäre die Gefahr einer unumstritten wohlfahrtsschädigenden Inflationssteigerung gegeben. Die Notenbanken können nämlich durch geldpolitische Instrumente wie Leitzinsniveau und Geldmenge die Inflation beeinflussen. Aufgrund dieser Problematik entbrannte in der Literatur eine rege Diskussion, wie optimalerweise das institutionelle Design der Geldpolitik aussehen sollte. Der Grad an Autonomie der Notenbanken spielt dabei eine ebenso entscheidende Rolle, wie die Implementierung zeitkonsistenter politischer Strategien.
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