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Zuverlässigkeit niederländischer Wachstumsprognosen by Schweiger, Anna

Zuverlässigkeit niederländischer Wachstumsprognosen

by Anna Schweiger
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783638930475
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 84
  • Original Price: USD 26.9
  • Language: German
  • Edition: 2. Auflage
  • Item Weight: 123 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Finance / General

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2007 im Fachbereich BWL - Investition und Finanzierung, Note: 1,3, Fachhochschule Braunschweig / Wolfenbüttel; Standort Wolfsburg, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) steht im Mittelpunkt dieser Studienarbeit. Die Prognose des BIP ist eine richtungweisende Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen. "So kann im Falle einer Rezessionsprognose eine Tendenz zur Selbstverstärkung der konjunkturellen Prozesse dann ausgelöst werden, wenn sich Investoren und Verbraucher nach der Veröffentlichung der Prognose in ihren Entscheidungen besonders zurückhalten." Im umgekehrten Fall bedeutet dies, dass ein prognostizierter Abschwung durch das Gegensteuern der Wirtschaftspolitik rechtzeitig abgewendet werden kann. Notwendigerweise sollte dafür eine gro e Zahl an Marktakteuren die Vorhersagen kennen und ihnen Vertrauen schenken. Rückkoppelungs-Effekte können dabei nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Aus diesem Grund kommt dem Prognostiker eine sehr gro e Verantwortung zu. Bei Konjunkturprognosen handelt es sich allerdings nur um bedingte Vorhersagen, sie sind im Stande so genannte "Wenn - dann - Aussagen" zu treffen. Bedingte Prognosen beseitigen nicht die Unsicherheit einer Prognose, aber sie tragen dazu bei diese zu verringern. Für die Wirtschaft und Politik sind Bruttoinlandsproduktprognosen trotz einiger Schwächen, die sich durch ständig ändernde Rahmenbedingungen ergeben, unentbehrlich. "Für die Konjunkturprognose stehen heute mehrere Verfahren zur Verfügung, die auf unterschiedlichen statistischen und theoretischen Voraussetzungen beruhen: Der Indikatoransatz, die iterativ-analistische Methode und die ökonometrische Prognose." Da bei der Prognose versucht wird von den Erfahrungen der Vergangenheit auf die Entwicklungen in der Zukunft zu schlie en bleiben Fehlerquellen, auf die der Prognostiker keinen Einfluss hat nicht aus.Nach KHOSRAWI-RAD sind Prognosen mit einer gewissen Unsicherheit und Ungenauigkeit verbunden. Jedoch

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