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Absatzprognosen by A. -W Scheer

Absatzprognosen

by A. -W Scheer
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Book cover type: Paperback
  • ISBN13: 9783540129349
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Subject: N/A
  • Publisher: Springer
  • Publisher Imprint: Springer
  • Publication Date:
  • Pages: 225
  • Original Price: GBP 42.99
  • Language: German
  • Edition: N/A
  • Item Weight: 250 grams
  • BISAC Subject(s): Marketing / General

Prognosewerte werden in Unternehmungen fur vielfiiltige Zwecke eingesetzt, insbesondere werden Planungsuberlegungen auf ihnen aufgebaut. So sind Absatzprognosen Grundlage von Absatz-, Produktions- und Investitions- pliinen und prognostizierte Zahlungsstrome bestimmen den Finanzplan. Pro- gnosewerte beeinflussen mithin kunftiges (geplantes) Handeln. Wiihrend aber in der Praxis formalisierte Planungsverfahren relativ breit ein- gesetzt werden, ist die Anwendung formalisierter Prognoseverfahren z. Z. selbst bei GroBunternehmungen noch keine Selbstverstiindlichkeit. Prognosewerte werden hiiufig mit Hilfe quantitativer Planungsverfahren verarbeitet; sie selbst werden jedoch intuitiv oder schematisch, z. B. durch Aufschlag globaler Wachstumsraten auf Vorjahrswerte, erstellt. Ein Planungs- ergebnis kann aber nicht besser sein als die Qualitiit der Daten, auf denen es beruht. Um so nachdrucklicher muB deshalb der Einsatz fortschrittlicher Prognose- techniken gefordert werden. Dazu steht einmal ein groBes Angebot erprobter Verfahren, auch in Form benutzerfreundlich gestalteter Computerprogramme, zur Verfugung, und zum anderen werden seit Jahren bereits im wirtschafts- wissenschaftlichen Grundstudium Kenntnisse im Fach Statistik vermittelt, die zum Verstiindnis der Verfahren vollig ausreichen. Vielleicht liegtaber gerade in diesen beiden Vorteilen ein Grund zur geringen Anwendung von Progno- severfahren: - Die Vielzahl der Verfahren erschwert die Auswahl einer bestimmten Me- thode fUr einen konkret vorliegenden Fall. - Durch die sehr stark theoretische Ausrichtung der Statistikausbildung an den Universitiiten wird eher eine psychische Sperre als eine Anwen- dungsmotivation fur statistische Verfahren erzielt. Anwendungsnahe Verfahren, wie z. B. Exponential Smoothing, werden dort hiiufig nicht behandelt. Die geringe Kenntnis der mit der Einfuhrung eines Ver- fahrens verbundenen ublichen Schwierigkeiten fuhrt daruber hinaus hiiufig zu einem vorzeitigen Abbruch von praktischen Versuchen.

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